--- title: Waiting on the Fed description: Rates have improved and sellers are eager to make deals. This may pose great opportunities for a nimble buyer. This is not an environment to wait until everyone hears about the improvement in rates. image: https://info.carringtonmortgage.com/hubfs/Work%20Trends_2022.12.12.jpeg --- [Skip to content](https://info.carringtonmortgage.com/knowledge-base/waiting-on-the-fed#main-content) ![bell icon](https://info.carringtonmortgage.com/hubfs/raw_assets/public/Templates/2022/svg/Alert-Notifications-Icon.svg) [![Carrington Mortgage Services](https://info.carringtonmortgage.com/hs-fs/hubfs/carrington_logo_final_2col_rgb.png?width=250&height=57&name=carrington_logo_final_2col_rgb.png)](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com) - [About Us](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/our-mission) - [Careers](https://www.carringtonhc.com/careers) - [Investors](https://www.carringtonhc.com/investors) - [Contact Us](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/contact-us) [Recent Transfer](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/new-customers) [Customer Login](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/login) MAKE HOME WORK Manage My Home arrow-down-anticon/submenu Manage My Mortgage arrow-down-anticon/submenu Learning Center MAKE HOME WORK Manage My Home arrow-down-anticon/submenu - I Am Ready to Start - [Buy a Home](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/home-loans/buy-a-home/check-existing-customer) - [Refinance My Home](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/home-loans/refinance-a-home/refinance-step) - What Loan Is Right For Me? 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Let's discuss what happened and talk about the headline risk on the horizon. **More Signs Of Inflation Falling** On Tuesday, 3rd Quarter Productivity showed that Unit Labor Costs (how much a business pays its workers to produce one unit of output), came in lower than expectations. If it costs less to produce something, there is no pressure to charge more, thereby lowering inflation expectations. The Productivity and Unit Labor Costs reading do not typically move the market that much, but in a world looking for signs that inflation is abating, this soft reading pushed bond yields sharply lower. **3.40%** Back on Nov 8th, the 10-yr Note yield peaked at 4.20%. One month later, yields fell all the way down to 3.40%, matching the lowest level since mid-September. Mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which is where home loan rates are derived, moved more sideways and didn't experience the large rate improvements seen in Treasuries. That is OK as mortgage rates also remain at the lowest levels since September. **2/10 Yield Curve Inversion** The yield on the 10-yr Note dropped over .80% beneath the 2-yr Note for the first time in over 40 years. Why is this important to us? Nearly every time the 2-yr yield moves above the 10-yr yield, a recession soon follows. Seeing the inversion steepen to levels last seen when Reagan was President suggests the threat of a recession is elevated. So, it seems, the financial markets have moved on from the threat of inflation to the threat of a recession. **Policy Error** Here's a term that is starting to catch the airwaves. Essentially it means the Fed will raise rates too high or try to keep them high for too long and push the economy into a recession. Remember, long-term rates only move higher with the Fed Funds Rate (the rate the Fed hikes) IF the economy can absorb those hikes. The bond market is clearly challenging the idea of a "higher for longer" Fed Funds Rate with the 10-yr Note falling as fast as it has over the past month. **Bottom line:** *Rates have improved and sellers are eager to make deals. This may pose great opportunities for a nimble buyer. This is not an environment to wait until everyone hears about the improvement in rates.* ## Related Articles [![](https://info.carringtonmortgage.com/hubfs/Market%20Trends_2022-04-04.jpeg)](https://info.carringtonmortgage.com/knowledge-base/tailwinds-from-abroad) [Market Trends](https://info.carringtonmortgage.com/knowledge-base/tag/market-trends) ### [Tailwinds From Abroad](https://info.carringtonmortgage.com/knowledge-base/tailwinds-from-abroad) Last Week in Review: Tailwinds From Abroad [CMS Marketing](https://info.carringtonmortgage.com/knowledge-base/author/cms-marketing) [Read More](https://info.carringtonmortgage.com/knowledge-base/tailwinds-from-abroad) [![](https://www.carringtonwholesale.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/2/2021/03/Market-Trends_2021.03.29.jpg)](https://info.carringtonmortgage.com/knowledge-base/rates-may-have-just-peaked-this-is-why) [Market Trends](https://info.carringtonmortgage.com/knowledge-base/tag/market-trends) ### [Rates May Have Just Peaked… This Is Why](https://info.carringtonmortgage.com/knowledge-base/rates-may-have-just-peaked-this-is-why) [Jordan](https://info.carringtonmortgage.com/knowledge-base/author/jordan) [Read More](https://info.carringtonmortgage.com/knowledge-base/rates-may-have-just-peaked-this-is-why) ## Mortgage & Lending Services - [Buy a Home](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/home-loans/buy-a-home) - [Refinance a Home](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/home-loans/refinance-a-home) - [Mortgage Calculators](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/tools/calculators) - [The Loan Process](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/tools/loan-process) - [Find an Expert](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/find-an-expert) - [Home Builders](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/Partner-with-Us/home-builders) - [Real Estate Agents](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/Partner-with-Us/real-estate-agents) ## Terms - [Privacy Policy](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/legal/privacy-policy) - [California Consumer Privacy Act Notice](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/legal/ccpa-notice) - [State Licensing](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/legal/state-licensing) - [Terms and Conditions](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/legal/terms-conditions) - [Best Practices](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/legal/best-practices) - [Fair Lending Statement / HMDA Notice](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/legal/fair-lending-statement) - [Consumer Fraud Alert](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/legal/consumer-fraud-alert) - [Equal Opportunities](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/legal/Equal-opportunities) ## Manage Your Mortgage - [Payment Options](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/payment-options) - [Mortgage Assistance](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/mortgage-assistance) - [Disaster Assistance](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/disaster-assistance) - [Scheduling Servicing Fee](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/schedule-of-fees) - [Payoff Statements](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/payoff-statements) ## Contact Us - Current Customers ## About Us - [Our Mission](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/our-mission) - [Foundation](https://www.carringtoncf.org) - [Holding Company](https://www.carringtonhc.com) - [Accessibility](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/accessibility) - [Press and Media](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/pressandmedia) - [Contact us](https://www.carringtonmortgage.com/contact-us) ## Get the App [![](https://info.carringtonmortgage.com/hs-fs/hubfs/raw_assets/public/Templates/2022/svg/Carrington-mobile-apple.jpg?width=135&height=42&name=Carrington-mobile-apple.jpg)](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/carrington-mobile/id1673471360) [![](https://info.carringtonmortgage.com/hs-fs/hubfs/raw_assets/public/Templates/2022/svg/White-Google-1.jpg?width=135&height=42&name=White-Google-1.jpg)](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.carringtonms.CMSMobile2&pli=1) [Icon-Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/CarringtonHomeLoans/) [Icon-Twitter](https://twitter.com/CarringtonMS) [Icon-Linkedin](https://www.linkedin.com/company/carrington-mortgage-services-llc) [Icon-Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/carringtonmortgage/) Icon-EHO Consumer Access NMLS ID #2600 | Copyright 2026 Carrington Mortgage Services, LLC. 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