October once again proved to be a historically turbulent month for Stocks and Bonds.
This past week, Stocks endured excruciating losses while Bonds and rates modestly improved.
Three Things Spooking the Markets:
- Rise in COVID-19 cases here and abroad. Europe is seeing an alarming increase in COVID-19 cases. In response, many large countries like Germany, France, and Italy are instituting a 4-week lockdown -- essentially shutting down their economies once again. With the rise in cases here, there is a fear we will have to close or slow the re-openings of many parts of our economy. This uncertain news really hurt Stocks and helped Bonds.
- Stimulus shelved until after the election. Unfortunately, Congress could not agree on a much-needed stimulus plan to help the many people and industries in need, especially after the rise in COVID-19 cases here and abroad this past week. A stimulus plan will be forthcoming, and it is likely to be north of $2 trillion. This should help add certainty to the market.
- Uncertain presidential election. Next Tuesday is Election Day. Typically, after a long day, we know who the next president will be. With mail-in voting and the ability to tally votes for days beyond Tuesday, there is a rising fear and concern we may not know who the next president will be for days or weeks. We shall see soon if those fears are justified.
This past week was not all bad and uncertain. Crazy enough, on Thursday, 3rd Quarter GDP was reported at an annual growth rate of 33.1% -- the highest in American history. This enormous number highlights how deep the recession was and how fast the economy grew out of it.
Moreover, the unemployment line continues to shorten as Initial Jobless Claims showed 751,000 new claims -- the best post-COVID reading.
Bottom line: The spooky events of the week left rates near unchanged and just above all-time lows.
